The impact of vertical model levels on the prediction of MJO teleconnections: Part I—The tropospheric pathways in the UFS global coupled model

This study evaluates the prediction of MJO teleconnections in two versions of the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS): prototype 5 (UFS5) and prototype 6 (UFS6). The differences between the two prototypes in the number of vertical layers (64 in UFS5 vs. 127 in UFS6) and the model top (54 km in UFS5 vs. 80 km in UFS6) can potentially impact the prediction of MJO teleconnections. With respect to ERA-Interim, the global teleconnections of the MJO to the Northern Hemisphere show similar biases in 500 hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic and European sectors in both prototypes, whereas UFS6 has slightly smaller biases over the North Pacific region. Both prototypes capture the extratropical cyclone activity occurring in weeks 3–4 over the North Atlantic after the MJO phases 6–7 and over the North Pacific and North America after MJO phases 4–5. Both prototypes successfully forecast the sign and approximate locations of 2-m temperature anomalies over the mid-to-high latitude continents occurring in weeks 3–4 after MJO phase 3 but fail to capture the sign reversal of anomalies over North America between weeks 3 and 4 after MJO phase 7. Overall, the two prototypes show similar performance in simulating the tropospheric basic state as well as prediction skill of the MJO and MJO teleconnections, suggesting that the increase in model vertical resolution and model top does not strongly improve the prediction of MJO teleconnections in the troposphere in UFS.