Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin Price Under Market News and Sentiments and Government Support Policies

Numerous variables are involved in determining the market capitalization and price of cryptocurrencies. So, It is impossible to ignore the feedback of each variable on the other ones. Also, Bitcoin management is challenging due to inter-dependencies and feedback between economic and social drivers. To better understand the dynamics that different variables have on Bitcoin, a system dynamics approach has been developed to investigate the complex interactions between factors related to Bitcoin and paper money and how these factors may affect the stability of Bitcoin. This paper aims to examine the impact of government support for Bitcoin in the future, news and sentiments effect on Bitcoin market price, and the future orientation of Bitcoin. For this purpose, a simulation period is considered from 2017 to 4500 days later. Moreover, In this study, policies have been designed to check the impact of policies on variables in the long term by keeping other variables constant. The results show that if governments support Bitcoin as an official trading currency in the future, the market price of Bitcoin and its trading volume will grow upward and fluctuate so that its market price will go up to about 90 thousand dollars.