Prediction of Liquefaction Triggering Time Based on Seismic Records

The prediction of liquefaction triggering times on a site is a critical factor in the analysis of liquefaction-induced deformations, yet it has remained to be an unsolved aspect. Drawing upon the distinctive feature of rapid frequency changes in liquefied sites, utilizing the Hilbert–Huang transform, this paper introduces a novel method for predicting liquefaction triggering times. By quantifying the frequency changes through the definition of step and error functions, a new approach for predicting site liquefaction trigger time is proposed. To validate this approach, real case of liquefaction, Treasure Island, is selected for the analysis. This necessitates the creation of both one-dimensional and two-dimensional nonlinear site response analysis models. These models, i.e., one-dimensional, two-dimensional and the new approach, are employed to evaluate the performance of these methods for predicting liquefaction time. The reliability of the predictions is confirmed through validation against documented cases of liquefaction. This comprehensive validation across eleven well-documented cases of liquefaction underscores the robustness of the proposed method. The results unequivocally demonstrate that the method proves effective in identifying moments of rapid seismic frequency variation that triggers liquefaction.