Forest fire risk modeling in Mediterranean forests using GIS and AHP method: case of the high Rif forest massif (Morocco)

The forest in Morocco is subject to various degradation factors, including fires, which are a permanent threat to forest ecosystems. Faced with this scourge, the mapping of areas at risk of forest fires is a major concern. The present study aims to assess the sensitivity of the forest fire in the upper Rif in Northern Morocco (Southern Mediterranean). Seven criteria such as forest structure, geomorphological conditions (elevation, slope and aspect) and human environment (distance from farmland, roads and human settlements) were integrated into the GIS to map forest sensitivity to fire. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDM) method was used to classify these criteria according to their contribution to the process of forest fire propagation. The burnt area between 2012 and 2022, generated using the Normalized Burn Ratio index (NBR) was applied to validate the results. The results are presented in maps ranking the degree of fire risk in four classes (low, medium, high and very high). High and very high-risk areas are more dominant, with 62% and 26% of forest cover, respectively. The statistical test (SI) was applied to find spatial relationships between criteria influencing wildfire and burned area. The SI indicates that forest formations located at low and medium altitudes are vulnerable to fire due to their high fuel accumulation. The forested area at high altitude is moderately sensitive to fire, due to the reduction in undergrowth caused by the cold of altitude. Cork oak and pine forests are the species most vulnerable to fire risk. These results provide a planning tool that can help decision-makers to adopt the necessary measures to prevent forest fires and minimize their damage.