Comparing Vertical Change in Riverine, Bayside, and Barrier Island Wetland Soils in Response to Acute and Chronic Disturbance in Apalachicola Bay, FL

Coastal wetlands experience acute and chronic disturbances which can affect rates of surface elevation change and vertical accretion of surface sediments. Disturbance can either amplify or impair the ability of wetlands to maintain their position within the tidal frame, with implications for their long-term persistence. Using an 8-year dataset collected from coupled surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations spanning riverine, bayside, and barrier island settings in the Apalachicola Bay region of north Florida, USA, this study investigated decadal-scale surface elevation change and vertical accretion rates to assess wetland vulnerability to acute (Hurricane Michael) and chronic (relative sea-level rise; RSLR) disturbance in different geomorphic settings. All sites had long-term accretion rates that exceeded rates of surface elevation change (pre-Michael), indicating that surface accretion was not a good indicator of changes in surface elevation for any of these coastal geomorphic settings. Hurricane Michael increased surface elevation change rates at bayside and riverine sites; barrier island sites consistently displayed the lowest surface elevation change rates, which did not differ between pre- and post-Michael periods. Accretion rates were greatest in the riverine sites, which were characterized by highly organic soils. Barrier island and bayside sites demonstrated elevation and accretion deficits relative to the rate of RSLR for Apalachicola Bay between 2010 and 2022, indicating high vulnerability of these sites to chronic increases in sea level. These estimates of marsh resilience relied exclusively on rates of vertical change and neglecting to account for lateral erosion failed to predict that each of the three barrier island sites experienced rapid loss of the seaward SET-MH stations during the observation period. These results provide evidence of different vertical change responses among coastal wetlands of three geomorphic settings exposed to hurricanes and RSLR in the same region and suggest different timelines for long-term persistence of these sites.