The value of information in stopping problems

We consider stopping problems in which a decision maker (DM) faces an unknown state of nature and decides sequentially whether to stop and take an irreversible action, or pay a fee and obtain additional information. We discuss the value and quality of information. The former is the maximal discounte...

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Veröffentlicht in:Economic theory 2024-09, Vol.78 (2), p.619-648
Hauptverfasser: Lehrer, Ehud, Wang, Tao
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:We consider stopping problems in which a decision maker (DM) faces an unknown state of nature and decides sequentially whether to stop and take an irreversible action, or pay a fee and obtain additional information. We discuss the value and quality of information. The former is the maximal discounted expected total payment the DM can generate under a history-dependent fee scheme. We show that among all history-dependent fee schemes, the upfront fee scheme (as opposed, for instance, to pay-for-use) is optimal: it achieves the value of information. The effects on the optimal strategy of obtaining information from a more accurate source and of having a higher discount factor are distinct, as far as expected stopping time and its distribution are concerned. However, these factors have a similar effect in that they both enlarge the set of cases in which the optimal strategy prescribes waiting.
ISSN:0938-2259
1432-0479
DOI:10.1007/s00199-023-01543-8