Stability analysis of the COVID-19 spread model in Jayapura city, Papua Province, Indonesia

The study in this paper analyzes the model of the spread of COVID-19 in Papua Province. The population is divided into five subpopulations, namely Suspected (S), Infected (I), Independent Isolation (Q1), Isolation provided by the Regional Government of Papua Province (Q2), and Recovered (R). Parameter values were obtained from COVID-19 data for June-August 2021 in Papua Province. The method for estimating the parameters in the model study uses the least square fitting technique and some of the parameters are taken from other journals, with data sources in Indonesia. Model analysis determines non-endemic stability points, and endemic models determine reproduction numbers. The model analyzed local and global asymptotic stability. The model solution is solved by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method.