Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Vietnamese Golden Cypress in Northern Vietnam

s Climate change influences the geographic distribution of species, especially rare and endangered species such as the Vietnamese Golden Cypress ( Xanthocyparis vietnamensis ). In this study, we determined the key factors influencing modelled distribution of the species, and assessed the influence of climate change on the distribution of the species using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model, occurrence data of the species and environmental variables (climate, topography, and soil conditions). Our results showed that the MaxEnt models were significantly superior to a random prediction (AUC > 0.9). Precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18), elevation, distance to karst areas, and isothermality (bio3) contributed significantly modelled distribution of the species. The predicted size of the current potential distribution is significantly larger than the known range in Vietnam (i.e. Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, Bac Kan, and Cao Bang provinces). The species’ suitable areas were predicted to reduced and shift toward higher elevations in two climate models (ACCESS1-0 and MPI-ESM-LR) under two selected climate change scenarios (medium-low greenhouse gas concentration (RCP 4.5) and high greenhouse gas concentration (RCP 8.5)) in 2050 and 2070. These findings will provide valuable references for managers and decision-makers for the conservation management of rare and threatened species in Vietnam.