Demographic impacts of China’s trade liberalization: marriage, spousal quality, and fertility

This study examines the effects of export tariff liberalization on women’s marriage and fertility choices in China. Utilizing a shift-share design that combines industry-level variation in export tariff reduction with differences in industry composition across cities, we discover that women in areas with greater export tariff reductions exhibit a reduced inclination to marry, postpone marriage, and have a higher likelihood to marry well-educated partners. Moreover, these reductions in export tariffs negatively impact women’s fertility primarily through altering marriage formation and timing, and marginally affect newborn sex ratios. We further explore potential channels and highlight the role of improvements in women’s absolute and relative economic status. Our results underscore the influence of global trade on demographic trends.