Predicting the potential distribution of Perina nuda under climate change in China

Perina nuda (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) is an important leaf‐feeding pest of Ficus species. It significantly affects the growth and reproduction of Ficus species, the economic prospects of growers, and the beauty of urban gardens. This study employed the MaxEnt model to predict and analyze the potential distribution of P. nuda in China, utilizing global distribution data and the correlation between the distribution of P. nuda and environmental variables. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of P. nuda included the warmest quarterly precipitation, coldest monthly minimum temperature, annual precipitation, and wettest monthly precipitation. The potential distribution area of P. nuda in China under current climatic conditions is 158 × 104 km2, accounting for 16.4% of the total area of the country. According to the SSP5‐8.5 scenario in 2050, the potential distribution area of P. nuda is projected to reach 200 × 104 km2, an increase of 26.5% compared to the current. P. nuda is widespread in China and has a tendency to spread, threatening the growth of Ficus species. This study is important for monitoring and control of P. nuda in areas where it is present, and where it may be present in the future. This study used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of the leaf‐feeding pest Perina nuda (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in China. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable area for P. nuda is distributed in southern China, and suitable areas tend to spread northward in the future. The distribution of P. nuda is significantly influenced by the environmental variable precipitation of the warmest quarter. This study may provide a scientific basis for the quarantine, regulation, and control of P. nuda.