Quantifying water effluent violations and enforcement impacts using causal AI

In the landscape of environmental governance, controlling water pollution through the regulation of point sources is vital as it preserves ecosystems, protects human health, ensures legal compliance, and fulfills global environmental responsibilities. Under the Clean Water Act, the integrated compliance information system monitors the compliance and enforcement status of facilities regulated by the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit program. This study assesses temporal and geographic trends for effluent violations within the United States and introduces a novel metric for quantifying violation trends at the facility level. Furthermore, we utilize a linear parametric approach for Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) causal analysis to quantify the heterogeneous effects of EPA and state enforcement actions on effluent violation trends at facilities with NPDES permits. Our research reveals insights into national pollutant discharge trends, regional clustering of all pollutant violation types in Ohio ( G i * ${G}_{i}^{* }$ Z‐score of 2.15), and priority pollutants in West Virginia ( G i * ${G}_{i}^{* }$ Z‐score of 3.07). The trend metric identifies regulated facilities that struggle with severe and recurring violations. The causal model highlights variations in state compliance and enforcement effectiveness, underscoring the successful moderation of violation trends by states such as Montana and Maryland, among others. 摘要 在环境治理领域，通过点源监管来控制水污染至关重要，因为它能保护生态系统、保护人类健康、确保法律合规、并履行全球环境责任。根据《清洁水法》，综合合规信息系统(ICIS)会监测受“国家污染物排放消除系统(NPDES)许可计划”监管的一系列设施的合规性和执法情况。本研究评估了美国境内排水违规的时间趋势和地理趋势，并引入了一项在设施层面量化违规趋势的新指标。此外，我们利用一项线性参数方法进行条件平均处理效应(CATE)因果分析，以揭示环境保护署和州执法行动对拥有NPDES许可证的设施的排放违规趋势的异质性影响。 我们的研究揭示了对“全国污染物排放趋势、俄亥俄州所有污染物违规类型的区域聚类（Z分数为 2.15）、以及西弗吉尼亚州重点污染物（Z分数为3.07）”的见解。趋势指标识别了受监管的设施，这些设施面临着严重和反复出现的违规行为。因果模型强调了州合规性和执法效力的差异，强调了蒙大拿和马里兰等州对违规趋势的成功缓解。 Resumen En el panorama de la gobernanza ambiental, controlar la contaminación del agua mediante la regulación de fuentes puntuales es vital ya que preserva los ecosistemas, protege la salud humana, garantiza el cumplimiento legal y cumple con las responsabilidades ambientales globales. Según la Ley de Agua Limpia, el Sistema Integrado de Información de Cumplimiento (ICIS) monitorea el cumplimiento y el estado de aplicación de las instalaciones reguladas por el programa de permisos del Sistema Nacional de Eliminación de Descargas Contaminantes (NPDES). Este estudio evalúa las tendencias temporales y geogr