Post-mining planning under the prism of land use alternatives: a cellular automata model

Greece committed to the European Green Deal plans to complete mining operations by the end of 2028 and to transition from coal-based electricity to renewable energy sources (RES). The mine closure under the principles of effective strategic planning of the post-mining land uses constitutes an integral part of this transition. This research aims to simulate land use changes in the Ptolemais lignite mining area from 2023 to 2030 using a cellular automata-based (CA) calibrated model. The model analyzed three distinct scenarios with directions of agriculture development, industrial growth, and nature and biodiversity conservation. Five areas’ topographic-morphologic characteristics (slope, distance from roads, predetermined RES, future lakes, and cities) were assessed through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calibrate the model for each scenario. A fuzzification algorithm was developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment to generate a land use suitability map for each scenario. The generated suitability maps were imported into the simulation model, serving as transition rules for each scenario. The study’s findings revealed that each scenario diachronically derives different land use types of distribution. The scenario-based approach has proven to be a valuable tool for simulating the dynamic transitions of post-mining land uses, offering significant assistance to decision-makers in planning new land use.