Comparing Influences of Solar Wind, ULF Waves, and Substorms on 20 eV–2 MeV Electron Flux (RBSP) Using ARMAX Models

Comparing Influences of Solar Wind, ULF Waves, and Substorms on 20 eV–2 MeV Electron Flux (RBSP) Using ARMAX Models

Electron fluxes (20 eV–2 MeV, RBSP‐A satellite) show reasonable simple correlation with a variety of parameters (solar wind, IMF, substorms, ultralow frequency (ULF) waves, geomagnetic indices) over L‐shells 2–6. Removing correlation‐inflating common cycles and trends (using autoregressive and movin...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of geophysical research. Space physics 2024-06, Vol.129 (6), p.n/a
Hauptverfasser: Simms, L. E., Ganushkina, N. Y., Dubyagin, S.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
ARMAX models
Charged particles
Correlation
Cycles
Electron flux
electron flux in magnetosphere
Electrons
Extremely low frequencies
Fluctuations
Geomagnetism
Influence
Magnetopause
Magnetospheres
Magnetospheric-solar wind relationships
Parameters
Prediction models
Radiation belts
Radiation damage
Satellites
Solar energy
Solar wind
solar wind parameters
Solar wind pressures
Solar wind velocity
Statistical significance
substorms
Time series
time series behavior
ULF waves
Waves
Wind pressure
Wind speed
Wind velocities
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Zusammenfassung:Electron fluxes (20 eV–2 MeV, RBSP‐A satellite) show reasonable simple correlation with a variety of parameters (solar wind, IMF, substorms, ultralow frequency (ULF) waves, geomagnetic indices) over L‐shells 2–6. Removing correlation‐inflating common cycles and trends (using autoregressive and moving average terms in an ARMAX analysis) results in a 10 times reduction in apparent association between drivers and electron flux, although many are still statistically significant (p 
ISSN:2169-9380
2169-9402
DOI:10.1029/2024JA032458