Real Income Stress in Russian Regions Amid the Pandemic and Sanctions

The study assesses the stress level in real incomes of population (in terms of wages) and real financial results of enterprises and organizations in the regions of the Russian Federation during the period of impact of the pandemic and sanctions shocks of 2018–2023. The study used a number of deflation techniques, as well as methods for eliminating seasonal and random components in the dynamics of the indicators. The level of stress in real incomes was evaluated using the author’s previously developed stress index, which is a moving (in increments of one month) difference between the standard deviation and the average annual growth rate of each indicator studied, and the method of its decomposition by sources was applied. The integral real income stress index was calculated as the sum of two partial stress indices normalized by the method of equivalent variances across the entire spatiotemporal sample. The study revealed the similarities and differences in the response of real incomes in regions and federal districts to the impact of prepandemic, pandemic, and new sanctions shocks, determined the stress levels of real wages and real financial results of enterprises and organizations, and identified spatial effects of stress distribution. It has been established that a decrease in the level of real income stress on a national scale occurred due to greater stability in the growth rates of the studied indicators in high-income regions, while the positive effect of interregional diversification of real income growth rates on the reduction of the all-Russian real income stress has not been empirically confirmed.