Business associations and adaptation to sanctions of Russian manufacturing enterprises: comparison of 2018 and 2022

The question of whether business associations help Russian companies adapt to international sanctions is examined. To answer this question, we used materials from surveys of managers of Russian manufacturing companies in 2018 and 2022, representative by size and industry. The fact of membership in a business association has a dual meaning: on the one hand, associations can act as a tool for adaptation to sanctions shocks (direct effect), and on the other hand, due to the self-selection effect, they consist of more stable companies that are less afraid of external shocks and less likely to take active action (indirect effect). These effects are separated using mediator models. The calculations show that in 2018, members of business associations assessed the consequences of sanctions as less serious and were less likely to take any action, perhaps due to the fact that enough time had passed since 2014 to adapt to them. In contrast, in 2022, association membership did not reduce CEOs' perception of the severity of sanctions, but a direct effect was found in association members' faster response to sanctions, including finding new suppliers and cutting costs.