Reliability analysis of high core rockfill dam against seepage failure considering spatial variability of hydraulic parameters

Historically, seepage failure has always been the primary cause of failures and accidents of earth dams after overtopping. However, research on the reliability of earth dams against seepage failure remains scarce. Meanwhile, the influence of the uncertainty of the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC) on the reliability of dams against seepage failure is still unclear. In this study, the van Genuchten–Mualem model is used to describe SWCC, and its uncertainty is characterized by discretizing SWCC fitting parameters a and n into cross-correlation lognormal random fields. Based on the random finite element method, this paper systematically studies the influence of the heterogeneity, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation of hydraulic parameters Ks , a , and n on the reliability of a dam against seepage failure. Sensitivity analysis indicates that Ks and autocorrelation distance crucially affect the reliability of the dam against seepage failure. Additionally, this paper also emphasizes and proves that considering the correlation between the hydraulic conductivity field and the critical hydraulic gradient field has a significant impact on evaluating the reliability of earth dams against seepage failure. However, this subtle but important potential characteristic has not been paid attention to in previous studies.