Impacts of China’s Main Grain-Producing Areas on Agricultural Carbon Emissions: A Sustainable Development Perspective

A path of green, low-carbon development in agriculture is to be explored in the face of global warming, which promotes sustainable development. Taking the policy of the main grain-producing area (MGPA) as a special background, this study shows the impact of the MGPA on reducing agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs). In the empirical analysis, a difference-in-differences (DID) model was constructed using panel data from 1999 to 2020 across 31 provinces in China to examine the impact of the MGPA on agricultural carbon emission reduction (ACER). The findings indicate the following: (1) The ACER is significantly promoted after the implementation of the MGPA policy. The results passed robustness and endogeneity tests. (2) The mechanism test reveals that the policy can achieve said reduction by advancing the level of planting specialization. (3) An analysis of the heterogeneity reveals that the implementation of this policy leads to a substantial decrease in ACE in regions characterized by lower economic development and imbalances in the structure of factors involved in agricultural production. Furthermore, in areas where small-scale farming prevails, the policy demonstrates enhanced effectiveness in ACER. The outcomes of this study not only elucidate the link between the MGPA and ACE but also serve as a valuable roadmap for achieving ACER and sustainable development. Additionally, they contribute to expanding the notion of environmentally friendly, low-carbon agriculture in the context of small-scale farming.