The impacts of agricultural productivity on structural transformation, and poverty alleviation in Africa: evidence from Guinea-Bissau

This study aims to analyze the impacts of improved agricultural productivity (IAP) on structural transformation and poverty in Guinea-Bissau (2014–2030) using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We found evidence of a positive effect of IAP on growth and sectoral output. Increased wealth accumulation and labor savings in agriculture have favored reinvestments in the manufacturing and services sectors and rural workers’ outflows from agriculture. There are long-term positive welfare effects from rising real income and household consumption. The poor in rural and urban settings benefited the most. We suggest an agricultural development agenda that may contribute to structural transformation in this country and improve the living standards of the poor.