It is here to stay. The exotic species Cloeon smaeleni Lestage, 1924 (Ephemeroptera) will be a long-term element of south American diversity

1. The African species Cloeon smaeleni is one of the three Ephemeroptera species recorded as exotic and was introduced in Brazilian port areas. The records of this exotic species do not have a pattern, making it challenging to propose control measures and impact investigations. 2. We utilized Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to address: (i) What is the range of the distribution in current condition in South America? (ii) What are the susceptible coastal areas to new introductions? (iii) Are the records geographically connected along a continuum of suitability? (iv) How will climate change impact the species’ distribution in South America? 3. Our models predicted a large and continuous suitable area encompassing critical biodiversity hotspots and threatened ecoregions for both current predictions and in the year 2060. 4. Under future climate scenarios, there is a slight shift in C. smaeleni ’s distribution with an overall reduction of suitable areas. However, large suitable areas still suggest this species may be a long-term element of South American diversity. 5. Long-term interactions with native species, especially in light of climate change, are of great concern, particularly for Callibaetis , as C. smaeleni may outcompete native populations and will maintain large suitable areas, while suitability for native species is expected to contract. Thus, interactions between C. smaeleni and native species should be investigated in future research to elucidate the implications for insect conservation in the potential suitability areas of the exotic species.