Fertility Intention for Two or More Children among Childbearing-Age Adults under China’s Changing Fertility Policies and Economic Development from 2010 to 2021

China has been experiencing below-replacement fertility rates for decades prompting concerns about the rapid aging of the population and a dwindling labour supply. This paper examines the effects of micro-level and macro-level factors on fertility intentions in China from 2010 to 2021. The analyses utilize repeated cross-sectional data from the nationally representative Chinese General Social Survey, focusing on adults of childbearing age. A multilevel logistic regression approach is employed. The findings indicate that economic status, at both the individual and provincial levels, significantly shapes individuals’ intentions regarding having two or more children. Those with higher individual economic status are more inclined to have multiple children, while individuals residing in provinces with higher mean incomes are less likely to have two or more children compared to those in provinces with lower mean incomes. Notably, the long-term impact of the one-child policy on intentions to have two or more children is particularly pronounced for urban residents and individuals from provinces that rigorously implemented the one-child policy. Additionally, the study identifies spatial differentiation in fertility intentions.