How much his or her job loss influences fertility: A couple approach

Objective: We analyze the effect of job loss on couple's fertility within 5 years, in the United Kingdom and Germany. We contribute to the literature by assessing to what extent a man's and a woman's job loss is consequential. Further, we study the effects based on couples' income, earnings division between partners, parental status, and women's age. Background: A job loss may decrease the couple's fertility as a drop in resources reduces parents' investments to devote to a newborn-or it may increase the risk of a new birth because a job loss reduces the opportunity cost of a birth, especially if the woman loses her job. Method: We analyze couples from large populationrepresentative panel surveys in Germany (N = 15,029) and the United Kingdom (TV = 15,932) containing yearly information about employment, relationship status, and fertility histories. We carry out estimates with linear probability models and inverse probability weighting methods. Results: Our results show that men's and, to a large extent, women's job loss negatively affects the chances of birth, especially in the United Kingdom. The subgroups mostly hit are income-egalitarian/female breadwinner and childless couples, with women in their mid-20 s up to late 30 s in the United Kingdom; income-egalitarian/male-breadwinner families, with 35-year to 40-year-old women and one child in Germany; middle-income couples are relatively more affected in both countries. Conclusion: A job loss makes couples less likely to have a child, particularly if the affected partner is a woman. The income effect jointly with other 6'unemployment scars" likely prevails on the reduction of opportunity costs of job loss.