Seismicity Modeling in Tasks of Seismic Hazard Assessment

The main disadvantages of selected elements of seismicity modeling for composing the General Seismic Zoning maps are considered in the framework of a probabilistic approach. We proposed a method that should provide more precise assessment of probable future seismicity after the improvements of the disadvantages. A stochastic seismicity model is suggested for the first time as a synthetic earthquake catalog, which is generated for an arbitrary conditional period and which reproduces the properties of the catalog of factual earthquakes including spatiotemporal grouping. The verification method of seismicity models is suggested to check the correspondence of the models to the primary data and the assessment of the predictive efficiency of the models and to compare various models based on these characteristics.