Rainfall Forecast for the Municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão – PE
Purpose: Carry out a forecast of rainfall in the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco, considering the years 2019 to 2022. Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall...
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| creator | Cunha, Ana Luiza Xavier Lima, Karina Paula Barbosa de Andrade De Holanda, Romildo Morant De Medeiros, Raimundo Mainar De França, Manoel Vieira Saboya, Luciano Marcelo Falle Moraes, Alex Souza Rocha, Liliane Guimarães |
| description | Purpose: Carry out a forecast of rainfall in the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco, considering the years 2019 to 2022.
Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall test, and for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the model (ARIMA).
Method: The data used were rainfall records from station 26 of the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC), located in the municipality itself. Daily values from 1970 to 2018 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the KPSS, Mann-Kendall and Box-Jenkins tests.
Results and conclusion: It was observed that rainfall significantly above the average occurred in the years 1978, 1986, 2000, 2005 and 2011, all of which were above 1,309 mm. The minimum rainfall series were recorded around 300 to 1,000 mm, with emphasis on the years 1995 to 2003, and between 2014 and 2018. In view of the results obtained, it was concluded that the predicted precipitation values for the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão for the years 2019 to 2022 were below average (1,309 mm).
Research implications: The study is of fundamental importance, as the impacts of climate change on water resources are strategic for the preparation, implementation and strengthening of public policies associated with the management of water resources.
Originality/value: The models used showed good adjustment to precipitation data, configuring as a useful and practical tool for improving the management of water resources in the municipality. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.24857/rgsa.v18n01-001 |
| format | Article |
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Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall test, and for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the model (ARIMA).
Method: The data used were rainfall records from station 26 of the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC), located in the municipality itself. Daily values from 1970 to 2018 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the KPSS, Mann-Kendall and Box-Jenkins tests.
Results and conclusion: It was observed that rainfall significantly above the average occurred in the years 1978, 1986, 2000, 2005 and 2011, all of which were above 1,309 mm. The minimum rainfall series were recorded around 300 to 1,000 mm, with emphasis on the years 1995 to 2003, and between 2014 and 2018. In view of the results obtained, it was concluded that the predicted precipitation values for the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão for the years 2019 to 2022 were below average (1,309 mm).
Research implications: The study is of fundamental importance, as the impacts of climate change on water resources are strategic for the preparation, implementation and strengthening of public policies associated with the management of water resources.
Originality/value: The models used showed good adjustment to precipitation data, configuring as a useful and practical tool for improving the management of water resources in the municipality.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1981-982X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1981-982X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.24857/rgsa.v18n01-001</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>São Paulo: Centro Universitário da FEI, Revista RGSA</publisher><subject>Climate change ; Environmental impact ; Floods ; Mathematical models ; Municipalities ; Precipitation ; Public policy ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Rainfall forecasting ; Statistical analysis ; Statistical methods ; Trends ; Water management ; Water resources ; Water resources management</subject><ispartof>RGSA : Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental, 2024-01, Vol.18 (1), p.e03972-15</ispartof><rights>2024. This work is published under https://rgsa.emnuvens.com.br/rgsa/about/editorialPolicies#openAccessPolicy (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c186t-168bd0c41cb8e18d3a51baaed455724b7ed2f2e3236f2c4147cf9a88ef3360f63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c186t-168bd0c41cb8e18d3a51baaed455724b7ed2f2e3236f2c4147cf9a88ef3360f63</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-4973-9327 ; 0000-0001-7361-1281 ; 0000-0003-4387-945X ; 0000-0001-7945-3616 ; 0000-0002-7586-6867 ; 0009-0000-4659-5917 ; 0000-0002-4324-8271 ; 0000-0002-3678-4340</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Cunha, Ana Luiza Xavier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lima, Karina Paula Barbosa de Andrade</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>De Holanda, Romildo Morant</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>De Medeiros, Raimundo Mainar</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>De França, Manoel Vieira</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Saboya, Luciano Marcelo Falle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moraes, Alex Souza</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rocha, Liliane Guimarães</creatorcontrib><title>Rainfall Forecast for the Municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão – PE</title><title>RGSA : Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental</title><description>Purpose: Carry out a forecast of rainfall in the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco, considering the years 2019 to 2022.
Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall test, and for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the model (ARIMA).
Method: The data used were rainfall records from station 26 of the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC), located in the municipality itself. Daily values from 1970 to 2018 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the KPSS, Mann-Kendall and Box-Jenkins tests.
Results and conclusion: It was observed that rainfall significantly above the average occurred in the years 1978, 1986, 2000, 2005 and 2011, all of which were above 1,309 mm. The minimum rainfall series were recorded around 300 to 1,000 mm, with emphasis on the years 1995 to 2003, and between 2014 and 2018. In view of the results obtained, it was concluded that the predicted precipitation values for the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão for the years 2019 to 2022 were below average (1,309 mm).
Research implications: The study is of fundamental importance, as the impacts of climate change on water resources are strategic for the preparation, implementation and strengthening of public policies associated with the management of water resources.
Originality/value: The models used showed good adjustment to precipitation data, configuring as a useful and practical tool for improving the management of water resources in the municipality.</description><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Municipalities</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Public policy</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall forecasting</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Statistical methods</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Water management</subject><subject>Water resources</subject><subject>Water resources management</subject><issn>1981-982X</issn><issn>1981-982X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNpNkM1KAzEUhYMoWGr3LgOup-YmmZl0WUqrhYriH-5CJpNoSp3UJBW68x18BB_BR-ib-CSOjgvv5tzFxznwIXQMZEi5yMvT8BjV8BVEQyAjBPZQD0YCspGgD_v__kM0iHFJ2hOE5BR6aH6tXGPVaoVnPhitYsLWB5yeDL7YNE67tVq5tMXe4nuXdp_BKVwbfKOa5PG4SbsPj7_e3vHV9AgdtD3RDP6yj-5m09vJeba4PJtPxotMgyhSBoWoaqI56EoYEDVTOVRKmZrneUl5VZqaWmoYZYWlLcZLbUdKCGMZK4gtWB-ddL3r4F82Jia59JvQtJOSkZxRThmHliIdpYOPMRgr18E9q7CVQOSvM_njTHbOZOuMfQPy92HW</recordid><startdate>20240101</startdate><enddate>20240101</enddate><creator>Cunha, Ana Luiza Xavier</creator><creator>Lima, Karina Paula Barbosa de Andrade</creator><creator>De Holanda, Romildo Morant</creator><creator>De Medeiros, Raimundo Mainar</creator><creator>De França, Manoel Vieira</creator><creator>Saboya, Luciano Marcelo Falle</creator><creator>Moraes, Alex Souza</creator><creator>Rocha, Liliane Guimarães</creator><general>Centro Universitário da FEI, Revista RGSA</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0-V</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88J</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ALSLI</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>CLZPN</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M2R</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>PYYUZ</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4973-9327</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-1281</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4387-945X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7945-3616</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7586-6867</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4659-5917</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4324-8271</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3678-4340</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20240101</creationdate><title>Rainfall Forecast for the Municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão – PE</title><author>Cunha, Ana Luiza Xavier ; 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Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall test, and for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the model (ARIMA).
Method: The data used were rainfall records from station 26 of the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC), located in the municipality itself. Daily values from 1970 to 2018 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the KPSS, Mann-Kendall and Box-Jenkins tests.
Results and conclusion: It was observed that rainfall significantly above the average occurred in the years 1978, 1986, 2000, 2005 and 2011, all of which were above 1,309 mm. The minimum rainfall series were recorded around 300 to 1,000 mm, with emphasis on the years 1995 to 2003, and between 2014 and 2018. In view of the results obtained, it was concluded that the predicted precipitation values for the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão for the years 2019 to 2022 were below average (1,309 mm).
Research implications: The study is of fundamental importance, as the impacts of climate change on water resources are strategic for the preparation, implementation and strengthening of public policies associated with the management of water resources.
Originality/value: The models used showed good adjustment to precipitation data, configuring as a useful and practical tool for improving the management of water resources in the municipality.</abstract><cop>São Paulo</cop><pub>Centro Universitário da FEI, Revista RGSA</pub><doi>10.24857/rgsa.v18n01-001</doi><tpages>15</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4973-9327</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7361-1281</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4387-945X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7945-3616</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7586-6867</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4659-5917</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4324-8271</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3678-4340</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Climate change Environmental impact Floods Mathematical models Municipalities Precipitation Public policy Rain Rainfall Rainfall forecasting Statistical analysis Statistical methods Trends Water management Water resources Water resources management |
| title | Rainfall Forecast for the Municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão – PE |
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