Rainfall Forecast for the Municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão – PE

Purpose: Carry out a forecast of rainfall in the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco, considering the years 2019 to 2022. Theoretical framework: The stationarity of the data can be evaluated using the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test, for trends, the Mann-Kendall test, and for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the model (ARIMA). Method: The data used were rainfall records from station 26 of the Pernambuco Water and Climate Agency (APAC), located in the municipality itself. Daily values from 1970 to 2018 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the KPSS, Mann-Kendall and Box-Jenkins tests. Results and conclusion: It was observed that rainfall significantly above the average occurred in the years 1978, 1986, 2000, 2005 and 2011, all of which were above 1,309 mm. The minimum rainfall series were recorded around 300 to 1,000 mm, with emphasis on the years 1995 to 2003, and between 2014 and 2018. In view of the results obtained, it was concluded that the predicted precipitation values for the municipality of Vitória de Santo Antão for the years 2019 to 2022 were below average (1,309 mm). Research implications: The study is of fundamental importance, as the impacts of climate change on water resources are strategic for the preparation, implementation and strengthening of public policies associated with the management of water resources. Originality/value: The models used showed good adjustment to precipitation data, configuring as a useful and practical tool for improving the management of water resources in the municipality.