Surface water resource attenuation attribution and patterns in Hai River Basin

From 1956 to 2016, Hai River Basin suffered the most severe surface water resource attenuation among the 10 first-class river basins in China. Based on the surface water circulation process, and evolving characteristics of precipitation and underlying surface in Hai River Basin, this study attributed the causes of surface water resource attenuation to six primary impact factors, analyzed each factor’s quantitative contribution, and revealed four patterns of surface water resource attenuation in Hai River Basin. The pattern of the dominant factor: comparing the 1980–2000 period with the 1956–1979 period, the variation of precipitation is the dominant factor of which contribution is 7 billion m 3 , accounting for 59% of total 11.7 billion m 3 ; comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1956–1979 period, the increasing of vegetation cover in mountainous area is the dominant factor of which contribution is 2.78 billion m 3 , accounting for 51% of total 4.9 billion m 3 . The pattern of spatial distributions: comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1956–1979 period, mountainous areas were more affected by increasing vegetation cover which for example contributed 42% in Luan River Basin mountainous; the plains were more impacted by farmland ridge interception which for example contributed 51% in Beisi River Basin plains. The pattern of attenuation trend: comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1980–2000 period, surface water resources in mountainous areas continued to decline, owing to the increasing water consumption of large-scale vegetation restoration, while the influence of the underlying surface changes on surface water resources in plains areas tended to remain stable. The pattern of reversible change: among factors led to surface water resource attenuation, the human activity, including vegetation cover increase, farmland ridge interception, and urbanization expansion, contributed 36% of the attenuation, which resulted in the variation of precipitation-runoff relation. This study improved the traditional attribution classification model of climate change and human activity and analyzed the causes and contributions of water resource attenuation in Hai River Basin based on the water circulation process, which can provide scientific support for the development of water resource management in the basin.