Theoretical carrying capacity of grasslands and early warning for maintaining forage-livestock balance in the Qilian Mountains, northwest China

Aims An in-depth understanding of the relationship between the theoretical carrying capacity of grasslands and the forage-livestock balance is crucial for maintaining ecological equilibrium in grasslands and guiding ecological engineering. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of these two parameters in the arid mountainous region of the Qilian Mountains (QLMs) in China remain unclear. Methods The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model was employed to estimate the theoretical carrying capacity. The grazing pressure index, which represents the ratio of the actual to theoretical carrying capacity, was used to assess the forage-livestock balance. Results From 2000 to 2018, the theoretical carrying capacity of grasslands in the QLMs showed a significant ( p