Global dynamics of a nonlocal PDE model for Lassa haemorrhagic fever transmission with periodic delays

Lassa haemorrhagic fever (LHF) is a disease that is mainly transmitted among humans by rodents. To discuss the effects due to the spatial heterogeneous structure, periodic incubation period, and periodicity of weather on the spread of LHF, we formulate a nonlocal reaction-diffusion model with periodic delays. We develop a way to calculate the basic reproduction number R 0 and study global dynamics of the model. Our simulations show that (i) it is possible to overestimate R 0 if a spatial average system is used, and underestimate spreading risk of the disease if the seasonality of LHF is ignored; (ii) LHF transmission can be reduced by increasing the diffusion rate of the hosts; (iii) shortening the incubation period may reduce the risk of disease transmission.