Assessing the impacts of urban expansion on sustainability; empirical evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan

Sustainable urban expansion is the need of the day for urban development and sustainability. This study attempts to analyse the impacts of urban expansion on the environment, economy, and society in Islamabad Pakistan. The region is facing sustainability challenges due to unplanned and rapid urban expansion which needs to be addressed. Geographical Information systems and Remote sensing data were used for land use classification of the past two decades along with Land Surface Temperature and, Normalized Difference Vegrtation Index as environmental sustainability parameters. Meanwhile, the socio-economic sustainability was accessed through Multiple Linear Regression Analyses by using data from the survey and Revised Master Plan of the city (2020–2040), past literature, and developmental reports of the Capital Development Authority (CDA). The results show a remarkable increase in urban land, land surface temperature, and major changes in urban green infrastructure. For validation of the results, several techniques including user accuracy, producer accuracy, and overall accuracy were adopted to ensure the spatial reliability of the geographical analysis. The Statistical results proved that economic and social sustainability is at risk by showing the values of regression coefficients R = 0.861 and R 0.791 respectively. Therefore, a dire need exists to turn the development plan of the city according to a revised master plan, and spatial modeling defined by the Government of Pakistan for area development and, sustainability. The study concluded that the rapid rate of urban expansion is a threat to the local environment, sustainable development, social integration, and economic stability.