SIS epidemics on open networks: A replacement-based approximation

In this paper we analyze continuous-time SIS epidemics subject to arrivals and departures of agents, by using an approximated process based on replacements. In defining the SIS dynamics in an open network, we consider a stochastic setting in which arrivals and departures take place according to Poisson processes with similar rates, and the new value of the infection probability of an arriving agent is drawn from a continuous distribution. Since the system size changes with time, we define an approximated process, in which replacements take place instead of arrivals and departures, and we focus on the evolution of an aggregate measure of the level of infection. So long as the reproduction number is less than one, the long-term behavior of this function measures the impact of the changes of the set of agents in the epidemic. We derive upper bounds for the expectation and variance of this function and we include a numerical example to show that the approximated process is close to the original SIS process.