Appraisal of the potential habitat distribution of Madhuca longifolia manifested remarkable resilience under various socio-climatic scenarios pan-India

Climatic change and various socioeconomic factors have major impact on any ecosystem and functions, notably on species composition and distribution. Madhuca longifolia is a socio-economically important tree native to Indian subcontinent. In the present study, impact of climate change on the species was estimated through its potential distribution pattern under current and future climatic scenarios applying four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) i.e. 2.6, 4.5 6.0, 8.5 for the year of 2041–2060 in India using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. 10 bioclimatic variables chosen out of 19 variables through multicollinearity test were used to simulate and determine the effects of climate change on the species distribution. For the current scenario, mean diurnal change (Bio_2) exhibited highest gain, whereas rainfall of warmest quarter (Bio_18) and annual rainfall (Bio_12) displayed the most significant gain under future climatic conditions. This study revealed that the species is mostly concentrated on the eastern part of the India with the state of Jharkhand having maximum highest suitability zones. However, the species demonstrated southerly shifting tendencies under all four RCP future scenarios. According to the projected distribution, there was a 4.5% increase under RCP 2.6 and a 7.37, 7.78, and 3.54% decline under RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. If there is no anthropogenic impact and unforeseen evolutionary shift happens within its native distribution, it is anticipated that the species would demonstrate strong resistance to changes in climatic circumstances. This research will be immensely beneficial in strategizing for the long-term conservation and protection of this crucial non-timber forest product (NTFP) species, hence improving the socioeconomic standing of local inhabitants.