Climate change in Brazil: evolutionary, comparative and forecast study

Brazil has one of the most important ecosystems in the world, composed of five different terrestrial biomes that have undergone transformations due to human activities. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the thermal changes that occurred in the capitals of the five Brazilian regions in the last 59 years and elaborate a forecast model up to 2031. We proposed time series models with a linear trend, trigonometric functions (sine and cosine functions), and autoregressive errors for the monthly mean temperatures of each region and calculated the forecast intervals for 2031. The average temperature increase was significant for all five regions. In the last 59 years, the largest mean increase occurred in the tropical savanna with the largest increase of 2.2 °C, followed by the humid oceanic region with 1.7 °C, and the other regions presented an increase of 1.1 °C. Environmental and climate change is a huge challenge for humanity, just as humanity challenges the resilience of the environment through intense and frequent impacts.