Dynamic Aggregation Method for Load Aggregators Considering Users’ Deviation Electricity

Constructing a new energy-based power system is not only an important direction for the transformation and upgrade of China’s power system, but also a key to achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality. How to fully utilize situation awareness technology to adapt to diverse and differentiated scenarios has become a crucial breakthrough point for ensuring the reliable, safe, high-quality, low-carbon, and economical operation of the new power system. Starting from the distribution network demand resources, this paper proposes a dynamic aggregation method for load aggregators considering the user deviation quantity, to deal with the current situation that the adjustable load-side resource points are multi-faceted and wide, and the operating subjects are complex and difficult to participate directly in the grid dispatch. First, considering there is subjectivity in the electricity behavior of users under the jurisdiction of the load aggregator, a deviation amount may be generated during the actual aggregation process, which reduces the profit of the load aggregator. Therefore, a load aggregator-level user deviation dynamic volume forecasting method based on the Markov chain is proposed, which is used to predict the deviation quantity of users during the dispatch cycle and achieve a dynamic status estimate on the load side of the new power system. On this basis, a dynamic aggregation model for load aggregators based on the deviation volume was constructed with the objective of maximizing the revenue of load aggregators. The examples, by comparing the aggregation results of users under three scenarios, show the proposed method can effectively guarantee the income of load aggregators, verify the effectiveness of the proposed dynamic aggregation strategy, and provide technical support for the operation situation awareness of the load side of the new power system.