Identification and prioritisation of barriers and drivers for achieving ethanol blending target in India using Delphi-PESTEL-Fuzzy-AHP method

In India, ethanol is recognised as a fuel for its potential to provide environmental and energy security-related benefits to the country. So, an Ethanol Blending Programme (EBP) has been initiated by the Government of India to harvest the benefits of ethanol. However, India has consistently failed to achieve the blending target, which indicates the necessity to recognise the barriers and drivers of the programme. In this present study, an integrated methodology has been proposed based on a hybrid Delphi-PESTEL (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal) and Fuzzy-AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis to identify and prioritise the barriers and drivers associated with the Indian ethanol blending programme. 25 PESTEL indicators have been identified, quantified, and ranked according to the opinion of the experts using the Fuzzy-AHP analysis. Further, the sensitivity of the Fuzzy-AHP result has been checked. The study shows that “Insufficient infrastructure” is the most significant barrier for the EBP while “Energy security of the country” is the most crucial driver of the programme. The present study is expected to help policymakers achieve the ethanol blending target.