Nursing Workload Prediction for Upcoming Shifts: A Retrospective Observational Exploratory Study in the Postoperative and Intensive Care Unit

Aims. This study aimed to explore workload whether Nursing Activities Scores on one shift could predict workload for the next shift. Method. This was a retrospective observational exploratory study of cross-sectional design carried out in a postoperative and intensive care unit at a local, nonprofit hospital in Norway. Data were collected from the hospital’s internal database from January 1st to June 30th, 2016. Results. A total of 2,695 patients and 5,916 Nursing Activities Scores were included. The model could predict a 55.1% to 66.9% variation in Nursing Activities Scores for the next shift. When the number of patients was added, the model explained up to 80% of the variation. Conclusions. The Nursing Activities Score can be used to predict nursing workload from one shift to another and as an instrument for managers to adjust their staffing requirements. Implications for Nursing Management. Nursing Activities Score assessing nursing workload for all patients in a unit can support the resource planning with accuracy for nurse staffing.