Exploring the Impacts of Land Use/Cover Change on Ecosystem Services in Multiple Scenarios --The Case of Sichuan-Chongqing Region, China

To improve the environment of the ecosystem, China has implemented the Green-forGrain Program for two decades, which has resulted in an imbalance among ecology.economy and food. This study focuses on the "ecology-food" imbalance problem.taking Sichuan-Chongqing Region as an example, to set up future scenarios topredicate the distribution of ESs. We first forecast land use/cover change in 2050under four different scenarios: Natural Development Scenarios; Arable LandConservation Scenarios; Ecological Priority Scenarios; Ecology-Arable LandHarmonization Scenarios. Then we assess changes in five ESs: habitat quality ,cropproduction, soil conservation, water yield, and carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 and2050. Finally, we reveal the spacial distribution of ESs. The following conclusions areobtained: (1) From 1990-2020, CS, SC, and HQ reveal an increasing trend with growthrates of 1.68%, 0.08%, and 0.46%: CP reveals a reduce rate of 2.75% . (2) S4 has anincrease in arable land, and CP has increased by 7.56% compared to S1, reversingthe trend of reduced CP under S1. (3) The high-high anomalies area of CP under S4 isoasically the same as that under S2, which proves that S4 is a scenario policy that canbe referred to for future development.