Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi‐Model and Single Model Ensembles

Forestation is a major component of future long‐term emissions reduction and CO2 removal strategies, but the viability of carbon stored in vegetation under future climates is highly uncertain. We analyze the results from seven CMIP6 models for a combined scenario with high fossil fuel emissions (from SSP5‐8.5) and forest expansion (from SSP1‐2.6) which has ∼4.8% increase in global total forest cover relative to 2015. This scenario aims to demonstrate the ability of forestation strategies to mitigate climate change under continued increasing CO2 emissions and includes the potential impacts of increased CO2 concentration and a warming climate on vegetation growth. The model intercomparison shows that forestation as a CO2 removal strategy has limited impact on global climate under a high global warming scenario, despite generating a substantial cumulative carbon sink of 10–60 Pg C over the period 2015–2100. Using a single model ensemble, we show that there are local increases in warm extremes in response to forestation associated with decreases in the number of cool days. Furthermore, we find evidence of a shift in the global carbon balance, whereby increased carbon storage on land of ∼25 Pg C by 2100 associated with forestation has a concomitant decrease in the carbon uptake by the ocean due to reduced atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Plain Language Summary We use seven model projections to estimate future climates in which forestation occurs under a high fossil fuel emission scenario. While the forestation in this scenario is not enough to substantially mitigate global warming, the new forest cover makes up a stable carbon sink over the next century. Key Points Forestation under a high emissions scenario is projected to generate a limited but stable carbon sink This sink on its own is not enough to significantly mitigate global warming Forestation has substantial impacts on the global carbon balance and regional impacts on temperature extremes