A Model-free Approach for Estimating Service Transformer Capacity Using Residential Smart Meter Data

Before residential photovoltaic (PV) systems are interconnected with the grid, various planning and impact studies are conducted on detailed models of the system to ensure safety and reliability are maintained. However, these model-based analyses can be time-consuming and error-prone, representing a potential bottleneck as the pace of PV installations accelerates. Data-driven tools and analyses provide an alternate pathway to supplement or replace their model-based counterparts. In this article, a data-driven algorithm is presented for assessing the thermal limitations of PV interconnections. Using input data from residential smart meters, and without any grid models or topology information, the algorithm can determine the nameplate capacity of the service transformer supplying those customers. The algorithm was tested on multiple datasets and predicted service transformer capacity with >98% accuracy, regardless of existing PV installations. This algorithm has various applications from model-free thermal impact analysis for hosting capacity studies to error detection and calibration of existing grid models.