Evaluation of Delay Mitigation Measures based on Delay Propagation Scores and Affected Passenger Numbers

In recent years, train delays have become one of the most serious problems affecting rail transportation in Japan. Although timetable planners try to improve punctuality by modifying current timetables, they have few means to determine how to increase train running time supplements or station dwelling time supplements. In this research, we developed a method for evaluating train delays based on their propagation range. We also proposed an evaluation method which takes into passenger perspectives. We applied these methods to timetable changes on existing railway lines and confirmed that the proposed methods can identify which trains are critical for measures to be effective and improve overall punctuality of the railways.