Time scale dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic waves: The case of Greece

The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process), this methodology focuses on the time scale that characterises the intensity and duration of the outbreak phase. Therefore, instead of predicting the peak of active cases, here their inflection point is predicted (the point where the increase of active cases stops accelerating and starts decelerating). Since the inflection point precedes the peak, this methodology can serve as an early warning of the peak. In addition, the paths between the various populations (healthy, exposed, infected, etc) that contribute the most to the outbreak phase are identified.