The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China

Rapid fertility decline has been witnessed in developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century. However, the consequences of fertility decline on average education and educational inequality at the societal level remain unexplored. Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) and China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) ( N = 44,918), this study contributes to the literature by answering two questions regarding the educational consequences of fertility decline in China with simulations. First, has the fertility decline improved human capital via declining average sibship size? Results reveal that the fertility decline during the 1950–1993 cohorts in China brought a 9% improvement in the average years of schooling compared to the Vietnamese counterfactual. Second, how does the differential fertility between groups contribute to educational inequality? Counterfactual simulations show that its impact on the educational disparity between males and females is limited. However, it has a marked impact on the rural–urban disparity in education.