Fire frequency and severity mediate recruitment response of a threatened shrub following severe megafire

Background Climate change is driving global fire regimes toward greater extremes, potentially threatening plant species that are adapted to historic fire regimes. Successful conservation of threatened plant species depends upon improving our understanding of how they respond to these changing fire regimes in fire prone regions. The 2019–2020 Australian megafires burnt at very high to extreme severity across an unprecedented extent and overlaid a complex history of prescribed burns and wildfires, providing an ideal foundation to study the consequences of multiple fire regime elements. We examined the recruitment response of Pomaderris bodalla , one of many threatened obligate-seeding shrub species growing in wet sclerophyll (mesic) forest in south-east Australia. We surveyed seedling recruitment at sites across a gradient of fire severity and frequency. Our aims were to (i) confirm in vitro results that suggest a positive relationship with fire severity; (ii) determine the species response to fire frequency and (iii) identify the nature of the effect of fire severity and fire frequency in combination. Results We found that recruitment had a positive response to fire severity, peaking at high severity sites as soil temperatures reached optimal levels for dormancy-break but declining, while still remaining positive, at moderate and extreme severity sites. The pattern of response matched in vitro studies, which had established that physically dormant P. bodalla seeds had minimal dormancy broken at low fire-related temperatures, peak dormancy broken at high fire-related temperatures and heat-induced mortality at extreme temperatures. Fire frequency had an overall negative effect on recruitment, with fewer recruits at more frequently burnt sites and this effect appeared to be additive with fire severity. Conclusion Our findings indicate that increased fire frequency poses an ongoing threat to P. bodalla and similar obligate-seeding shrub species. The hump-shaped relationship with fire severity suggests that future large-scale extreme fires will cause seed mortality-induced reduction in recruitment, with the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of high fire frequency. Informed management of threatened species requires detailed knowledge of species responses to multiple fire regime elements, and novel fire response traits like seed dormancy can provide beneficial insights for robust conservation strategies.