Explaining the conflicting behavior of inexperienced and experienced political elites

The empirical results on the influence of inexperience and experience in decision making are inconclusive. This paper offers a resolution to the puzzle of how empirical studies that advance contradictory risk-related claims can all command empirical support. The paper employs a paradigmatic model of decision making that examines two variables: (1) the decision maker's personality, of which inexperience and experience is one component; and (2) the particulars of the decision problem. These two variables permit us to resolve the puzzle of inconclusive empirical results by identifying the separating conditions under which each risk-related claim holds.