Crime and economic growth: a case study of Manaus, Brazil

Brazil became the seventh largest economy in the world in 2012. In the same year, the country was responsible for 13% of all worldwide murders. Despite the economic advances, crime is increasing over time in the country. This study explores the impact of organized crime on local economies, focusing on the case of Manaus, Brazil, and the emergence of the criminal group Família do Norte (FDN). We employ a synthetic control method to analyze the economic effects of the FDN's presence in Manaus. The findings reveal a significant negative impact on the city's economic growth and prosperity, with Manaus experiencing a 2% per year lower GDP per capita compared to what it would have been without the FDN. Robustness checks confirme this result, showing how organized crime can disrupt the country's economic advances.