Exporting Russian Coal in the Context of the European Union’s Sanctions Policy: Consequences and Development Scenarios

This article examines the impact of the ban on the import of Russian coal by European Union (EU) countries. The probable financial and volume losses of Russian coal are estimated according to data of the Federal Customs Service of Russia, the International Energy Agency, and Russian Railways. Russia may short-deliver 49.35 million t of coal to the EU (22% of Russia’s coal exports in 2021), which is equivalent to $3.84 billion (20% of coal exports). The ban on coal imports will affect Kemerovo oblast and the Republic of Khakassia to the greatest extent (the EU accounts for about 30% in the structure of supplies and 25‒30% in the structure of cash receipts). The import ban will practically not affect the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Sakhalin oblast, Khabarovsk krai, or Zabaikalsky krai. The biggest reduction in the volume of supplies to Europe will correspond to large holdings of Kemerovo oblast, Novosibirsk oblast, and the Republic of Khakassia. It is established that, in share terms, smaller companies will suffer more, because EU countries occupied more than 50% in the structure of their export supplies. There are three possible main scenarios for interactions between Russian and global coal markets: inertial (maintaining the share of European countries in the real supply structure by concluding agreements with Turkish traders), transformational (the complete switching of supplies to new markets: Asian giants such as China and India, the Middle East (Turkey), Southeast Asia, or new African and American markets), and inertial–transformational (the gradual replacement of the European market with Asian and new African and American ones).