Future scenarios of China’s electric vehicle ownership: A modeling study based on system dynamic approach

Promoting electric vehicles is an important way to achieve a low-carbon transport sector for the carbon peak and neutrality target. A better understanding of future scenarios of EV ownership is fundamental for more policy-relevant results. This study develops a system dynamic model for simulating EV ownership in China by considering the interactions among factors influencing the application of electric vehicles and synthetic scenarios designed. The result shows that under the baseline scenario, China’s EV ownership would increase by 36 times, from 4.3 to 157.2 million during 2020–2035, and the new EV sales will account for 60% of total car sales, meaning that it would reach the target of promoting electric vehicles set by the Chinese government. However, according to the scenario analysis, the efficient strategies to accelerate the promotion of EVs in China are speeding up the construction of charging facilities, improving battery lifespan, and reducing daily usage fees, which are estimated to increase the EV ownership in 2035 by 59.6%, 27.3%, and 26.8%, respectively. In comparison, the effect is not so obvious for measures like duty-free and subsidy policy. The developed model can offer policymakers a reliable tool and reference to assess the outcomes of policies to promote EV application ahead of their implementation.