Deep Learning Regional Climate Model Emulators: A Comparison of Two Downscaling Training Frameworks

Regional climate models (RCMs) have a high computational cost due to their higher spatial resolution compared to global climate models (GCMs). Therefore, various downscaling approaches have been developed as a surrogate for the dynamical downscaling of GCMs. This study assesses the potential of using a cost‐efficient machine learning alternative to dynamical downscaling by using the example case study of emulating surface mass balance (SMB) over the Antarctic Peninsula. More specifically, we determine the impact of the training framework by comparing two training scenarios: (a) a perfect and (b) an imperfect model framework. In the perfect model framework, the RCM‐emulator learns only the downscaling function; therefore, it was trained with upscaled RCM (UPRCM) features at GCM resolution. This emulator accurately reproduced SMB when evaluated on UPRCM, but its predictions on GCM data conserved RCM‐GCM inconsistencies and led to underestimation. In the imperfect model framework, the RCM‐emulator was trained with GCM features and downscaled the GCM while exposed to RCM‐GCM inconsistencies. This emulator predicted SMB close to the truth, showing it learned the underlying inconsistencies and dynamics. Our results suggest that a deep learning RCM‐emulator can learn the proper GCM to RCM downscaling function while working directly with GCM data. Furthermore, the RCM‐emulator presents a significant computational gain compared to an RCM simulation. We conclude that machine learning emulators can be applied to produce fast and fine‐scaled predictions of RCM simulations from GCM data. Plain Language Summary Over the last century, climate scientists have tried to deepen their understanding of the behavior of climate processes through two types of computer climate simulations: global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models. GCMs cover the whole planet but do not contain fine spatial details, whereas RCMs provide highly detailed information but cover small areas and come at a high additional computational cost. Therefore, we imitated regional models from global models using machine learning to facilitate their faster development. To test our machine learning framework, we focused on the Antarctic Peninsula and aimed to reproduce the surface mass balance (SMB) of ice formation and loss. We trained our model to learn the relationship between a group of low‐resolution images of climate variables and a high‐resolution image from SMB images in the same region. Our results