Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion: An analog-CLIPER approach

In recent years, numerical models have shown significant improvement in their ability to predict tropical cyclone motion. This has brought about a decline in the development, improvement, and use of models that treat environmental data in a statistical prediction framework. However, the very basic s...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Weather and forecasting 2002-08, Vol.17 (4), p.821-831
Hauptverfasser:	BESSAFI, M, LASSERRE-BIGORRY, A, NEUMANN, C. J, PIGNOLET-TARDAN, F, PAYET, D, LEE-CHING-KEN, M
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Analogs Basins Climate Climate models Climatology Coefficients Cyclones Earth, ocean, space Eigenvectors Environment models Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Hurricanes Mathematical models Meteorology Modelling Movement Numerical models Ocean basins Predictions Principal components analysis Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistical prediction Tropical cyclones Weather Weather analysis and prediction
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	In recent years, numerical models have shown significant improvement in their ability to predict tropical cyclone motion. This has brought about a decline in the development, improvement, and use of models that treat environmental data in a statistical prediction framework. However, the very basic statistical climatology and persistence (CLIPER) models continue to be functional in both operational and research environments.
ISSN:	0882-8156 1520-0434
DOI:	10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0821:SPOTCM>2.0.CO;2