The Latest History of the Development of Kazakhstan’s Urban Agglomerations

The article studies the current stage of development of Kazakhstan’s agglomerations, the incentivized formation of which has become a state policy priority. Due to the lack of criteria, the boundaries of potential agglomerations are determined by 1.5-h isochrons of transport accessibility around cities with populations of 100 000 or more. Of these cities, eight centers were selected, based on a modified development coefficient that takes into account, in addition to urban satellites, villages with populations of more than 3000 people. A number of socioeconomic indicators were used to analyze the level of separation of cores of agglomerations from their suburbs and regions. The example of Kazakhstan has shown that the inherited structure of the economy and low level of comfort of the environments of cities do not contribute to the development of most agglomerations. During the post-Soviet period, their share in the population of the republic increased from 43 to 52%, while the administrative option of creating agglomerations works only when there are objective prerequisites and evolutionary work in progress. Among agglomerations fixed in government documents with the status of points of growth, the Almaty agglomeration has been deemed developed. The attraction zone of Shymkent includes mainly large villages, some of which have recently become towns. The metropolitan agglomeration of Astana is significantly inferior even to the neighboring Karaganda in terms of development. Aktobe is able to attract residents only form the northwestern regions due to low transport connectivity with the rest of the country. In socioeconomic development indicators, metropolitan agglomerations stand out, and third largest, Shymkent, dominates in the degree of tertiarization of the economy. The other agglomerations retain increased industrial employment, and population growth, owing to low attractiveness, comes from natural growth and intraregional migration. Except for Almaty, in surroundings of which there are features of suburbanization, core cities are growing faster than the zones of influence. The suburbs are distinguished by a lack of job opportunities, weak social infrastructure, and a lower level of household income. This situation, typical of the initial stages of development, hinders agglomerations from realizing their advantages.