The electoral consequences of welfare state changes: a sober look at theory and evidence

The expectation that welfare retrenchment and expansion have electoral consequences for governing parties is widespread in welfare state research. Previous research either argues that welfare state change has electoral consequences across the board or that this is at least the case under certain conditions, such as a left party in government. In this study, we synthesize existing theoretical approaches into a stylized theoretical model and discuss why the assumptions underlying the electoral consequences argument may be questionable. We then conduct an empirical analysis of the electoral fates of government parties in 20 European countries. A wide range of statistical specifications provide practically no evidence for electoral consequences of welfare state changes even under favorable conditions. The importance of welfare changes for electoral outcomes may therefore be overstated.