Projection of Climate Change and the Intensity of Exogenous Processes on the Territory of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous District

The climate changes occurring in the Arctic are expressed in an increase in extreme values, as well as in a wide range of permafrost degradation processes, the state of which, being sensitive to climate change, causes the activation of rapidly proceeding exogenous processes. To predict the climate in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug for the mid-twenty-first century, data from 42 models of the CMIP6 were used. The temperature in January is expected to increase by about 3.5°C (on the coast of the Kara Sea even by 4.5°C), and in July, by ~2.5°C everywhere. The 5 and 95% quantiles will increase by 3 and 4.5°C in January and by 2 and 3°C in July, respectively. The amount of monthly precipitation will increase by an average of 10% in January and will not change in July. The 95% quantile values will increase by 30 and 10% in January and July, respectively. The number of frost days will be reduced. The warming in combination with an increase in precipitation will lead to an increase in the activity of avalanches and slush flows on the eastern slopes of the Urals and tell on the characteristics of landslides, abrasion, suffusion, erosion, thermokarst, and solifluction. Climate-dependent branches of the economy should be ready for projected changes in the natural environment.